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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Mopa and Dabolim - After the ICAO 2007 Report

A previous article on Mopa and Dabolim looked at
  • The possible constraints on capacity at Dabolim, especially in comparison with Gatwick Airport, which services nearly 35mn passengers with a single runway. It turns out that constraints at Dabolim, if any, are surrounding the availability of land for larger terminals, aircraft stands, and other items like car parking and fuel tanking.
  • It showed that there is a massive increase in the number of airports in our vicinity that will soon be able to handle A-320s/B737s.
  • It looked at the alternatives facing Goa. The two airport option is the worst of all worlds. If we put Dabolim head to head with Mopa, Mopa is clearly inferior to Dabolim on many counts. Only if there is an overriding hard constraint on expansion at Dabolim should Mopa even be considered.
  • A look at the map showed that there are significant parcels of land available in and around Dabolim for the Navy to move its non-critical infrastructure (housing, etc.), and for the Civil Enclave to expand. There is substantial land available for any food processing park that is being bandied about.
  • Lastly, it speculates about why the state of Goa has got stuck with a second airport, which has not been justified in any rigorous fashion.
In 2007, the Government of Goa commissioned the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation, an arm of the UN) to do a study on Mopa. I received this report only recently. This article looks at the findings of the ICAO Report of 2007. In light of events after the ICAO Report in 2007, a re-look is needed at the air traffic forecasts for Goa. A more detailed look at the capacity of the New Terminal at Dabolim shows that it is more than adequate for Goa's needs for a long time. Further, there are even more options for expansion as the Navy is creating two airbases near Goa (Karwar, Belgaum), one in particular for the MIG-29K which will replace the Sea Harriers based in Dabolim. A quick look at Mopa from a cost-benefit angle show that it is a poor choice. There are also some significant obstacles in front of Mopa. In light of the growing opposition to Mopa, we are then left with the enigma of why are the politicians are so keen on Mopa. Lastly, I suggest some actions that can be taken by interested readers.

The findings of the ICAO Report

The ICAO Report on the two-airport option was completed in July 2007. Here are some of key elements of the ICAO 2007 report:
  1. The two key assumptions given to ICAO by the Government of Goa were
    • A decision had been taken to construct a greenfield airport at Mopa site. This was not to be re-examined by the ICAO.
    • No further expansions of the Civil Enclave at Dabolim airport would occur, beyond the then currently planned developments for civilian use (the new terminal at Dabolim being the most important one). There was no space for ICAO to review whether Dabolim could suffice for Goa through further expansions.
  2. The sole reason for the ICAO Report 2007 was to study the feasibility of simultaneous operations at Dabolim and Mopa airports. On this point, ICAO's conclusions are clear
    • Even if Mopa were the only airport, i.e., Dabolim was shut down for civil operations, Mopa would not be financially viable without a subsidy from the Goa Government.
    • A two airport solution is much, much worse. It would negatively impact the financial viability of both Mopa (for which further subsidies would be required from the Goa Government, as well as that of Dabolim (which was very highly profitable in 2007).
  3. ICAO makes it amply clear that the New Terminal at Dabolim is adequate for a long time. First, ICAO re-estimates the air traffic demand for Goa till 2034-35. They then list out all the current constraints at Dabolim. Finally, in the context of the new terminal at Dabolim and related enhancements planned by AAI, ICAO clearly states that these "would significantly alleviate most operational problems described in the previous sections of this report."
  4. There are a few statements made by ICAO which are reflective of the adage, "he who pays the piper calls the tune". These provide some defensibility to the politicians, while not compromising ICAO professionally. For instance :
    • ICAO states "There is no question that a new airport will eventually be required at Mopa, when the enhanced capacity of Dabolim will not cope with the demand. The challenge is to determine when this capacity will be reached, assuming no additional land will be made available to AAI, and therefore, when the new airport should be commissioned, with what airport characteristics and with what capacity." In substance, ICAO is saying that at some very distant point in the future, if Dabolim is not expanded further, a new airport will be needed. The politicians are using this to imply that ICAO is saying Mopa is needed.
    • ICAO states "a dual airport system is a second best solution only, compared to a single airport system to serve a relatively small air transportation market such as Goa's market. It is however noted that there may be reasons, economic, political and/or social that may call for the need to operate both airports." In other words, Goa doesn't need both airports. The politicians take this to mean that ICAO says that a two airport system is "feasible".
It is interesting to read the comments of the ex-AAI Director in this context - "We knew at the back of our mind that there were no investors for Mopa but when a state keeps on pushing it with the Centre, the Ministry took a call."

While the Goa Government is pressing ahead with Mopa, let's see what has changed since 2007 ? Lots !

 

Demand for air traffic

Estimates from 2007 & actuals : The ICAO Report provides air traffic estimates for Goa from AAI and ICAO, both done in 2007. Historical annual data on Indian airports and monthly data for Dabolim are also available to check how accurate the estimates are. Some observations :
  1. The peak traffic estimate, in 2034-35, 9.3 million passengers. This is around 3 times the present traffic. For comparison, this is lower than the peak traffic of 10.1 mn passengers handled by the old Bangalore airport (the HAL airport) in 2007-08. This was achieved with very little space. As we shall see later, 9.3 million passengers is approximately the capacity of the new terminal at Dabolim. No wonder the current Government is revising the air traffic estimates.
  2. The AAI and ICAO passenger estimates are higher than the actuals up to the most recent full year statistics (2011-12.) While the full year numbers for 2012-13 are not yet available, Dabolim has seen a negative growth of 1% for the first 11 months of 2012-13 (3,156,536 versus 3,189,381 in the previous year.) In corroboration, we find that tourist traffic in 2012-13 also shows a decline.
  3. Goa's domestic air traffic is the overwhelming majority of the air traffic (over 80%). This is surprising as there are a number of airports in India where the domestic air traffic is less than 50% of the total air traffic. Goa's international traffic as a % of total traffic (less than 20%) is lower than even the closest international airports, Mangalore and Mumbai (both around 30%). However, this split is in line with the tourist arrivals.
  4. Looking at the monthly data for Dabolim, we find that the all year round base international air traffic (even through the monsoon) is around 40% of the total international air traffic. This would comprise the outbound Indian traveller and the NRIs from the Middle East. The seasonal inbound international tourist traffic would comprise around 60% of the international traffic, or around 12% of the total traffic (20% x 60%). This is relatively tiny.
  5. The Goa Government estimates that in 2011-12 there were 2,337,499 domestic tourists and 450,530 international tourists, adding up to 2,788,029 tourists. The number of tourists is around 80% of the number of air passengers. This ratio has declined since 2006-07, indicating that the growth in air traffic has come from other sources (mining boom ?) In these statistics, a tourist flying both in and out of Goa would be counted as one tourist but two air traffic passengers.
Total Passengers Domestic Passengers International Passengers Movements
Year AAI ICAO Actual AAI ICAO Actual AAI ICAO Actual AAI ICAO Actual
2006-07 2.213 2.213 2.212 1.810 1.810 1.808 0.403 0.403 0.403  20,157  15,120  19,682
2009-10 3.366 2.946 2.629 2.409 2.198 0.537 0.431  30,656  18,573  24,326
2011-12 3.522 2.943 0.578  27,430
2014-15 5.421 4.132 3.379 0.753  49,372  26,214
2019-20 5.483 4.522 0.961  NA 
2024-25 6.940 5.771 1.169  NA   61,965
2029-30 8.026 6.657 1.369  NA 
2034-35 9.267 7.680 1.587  NA   82,740
Source : ICAO 2007 Report. AAI in 2007; ICAO in July 2007; Actual from AAI website

What changes can we anticipate in demand? Air traffic demand can be divided into domestic traffic, international traffic and cargo. Air traffic can be further split into transit traffic through a hub airport, outbound traffic (originating) and inbound traffic (terminating).

Cargo operations take up very little space. For instance, using the 2024-25 estimate for cargo, we still get a rather small space requirement of 4,500 sq. mtrs. (the new terminal is around 60,000 sq. mtrs.) There has been some thought that Goa can develop a cargo hub for floriculture and horticulture products. Unfortunately, the neighbouring states, which would grow the products, are already developing specialised airports for this. The Pune airport was declared a customs airport primarily for exporting perishable agriculture products. A greenfield airport is being developed at Shimoga, with an integrated horticulture and floriculture hub. Extensive cold chains would be required for these exports. It is difficult to imagine either neighbouring state developing this infrastructure to feed Goa's airport instead of their own (which also have better access to the farming regions through NH4). Cargo cannot be a source of significant demand, and the ICAO Report concurs.

Airport Terminal Terminal size (sq. mtrs.) Cargo Capacity (MT) Ratio
Suvarnabumi Airport, Bangkok International Cargo               90,000               966,000      11
Domestic Cargo               10,600                  88,500         8
Incheon Airport, Seoul Korean Air               81,900            1,460,000      18
Asiana Airlines               50,400            1,110,000      22
Foreign Carriers (UPS, FedEx, TNT etc.)               50,400               520,000      10
International EMS Centre               29,724               350,000      12
US Army Post Office                 1,516                  20,000      13
DHL                 9,454               210,000      22
Atlas Air               11,250               200,000      18
Dabolim Airport, Goa                 4,491                  37,493         8
Dabolim estimate is for 2024-25 by ADPi. Using the minimum ratio observed to derive terminal size

Goa as a Hub Airport : It would take a great stretch of the imagination to see Goa as a hub airport - it is not centrally located, poorly connected by all transport modes and is close to a number of other hubs. Also, the overall low population makes it a poor hub. This cannot be a source of significant demand.

Outbound / originating traffic : The situation with outbound / originating traffic in the catchment area of Goa's airport(s) has deteriorated very significantly since the ICAO / AAI estimates were made :
  1. Population in the vicinity of Goa is very low. Further, this low population is growing very slowly, if at all. It will most likely reach a plateau soon. Already Goa is much below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1.
  2. Domestic traffic : Five airports, Belgaum, Hubli, Kolhapur, Sindhudurg and Karwar, all within the near vicinity of Dabolim / Mopa, are being upgraded or built greenfield to handle A-320s/B-737s. This will have a massive negative impact on the addressable market for domestic passengers and cargo.
  3. International traffic : The addressable market here doesn't reduce as much. However, it is a relatively small base, both of existing outbound international traffic, as well as the addressable population.
Population (Census) Domestic airport options International airport options
District 2001 2011 Growth 2007 2017 2007 2017 Remarks
Raigarh  2,207,929     2,635,394 19.4% Mumbai Navi Mumbai Mumbai Navi Mumbai Very close to Navi Mumbai
Ratnagiri  1,696,777     1,612,672 -5.0% Goa / Pune / Mumbai Sindhudurg / Kolhapur /  Navi Mumbai Mumbai Navi Mumbai Ratnagiri airport handed over to the Coast Guard due to lack of traffic.
Sindhudurg      868,825        848,868 -2.3% Goa Sindhudurg Goa Goa Sindhudurg airport being constructed, to handle A-320s. 
North Goa      758,573        817,761 7.8% Goa Goa Mumbai / Goa Navi Mumbai / Goa Mumbai is more convenient for international travel
South Goa      589,095        639,962 8.6% Goa Goa Mumbai / Goa Navi Mumbai / Goa
Uttar Kannada  1,353,644     1,436,847 6.1% Goa Karwar Mumbai / Goa Navi Mumbai / Goa
Udipi  1,112,243     1,177,908 5.9% Mangalore / Goa Udipi / Mangalore Mangalore / Bangalore Mangalore / Bangalore New airport proposed between Udupi and Manipal. Very close to Mangalore Intl. airport
Dakshin Kannada  1,897,730     2,083,625 9.8% Mangalore Mangalore Mangalore Mangalore
Kolhapur  3,523,162     3,874,615 10.0% Pune / Mumbai Kolhapur Mumbai Navi Mumbai / New Pune Kolhapur airport being upgraded to handle A-320/B-737s. NH4 access too.
Belgaum  4,214,505     4,778,439 13.4% Goa / Pune Belgaum Bangalore / Goa Bangalore Belgaum airport being upgraded to handle A-320/B-737s. NH4 access too.
Dharwad  1,604,263     1,846,993 15.1% Goa / Bangalore Hubli Bangalore / Goa Bangalore Hubli airport being upgraded to handle A320/B737s. NH4 access too.
Addressable population for Goa's airport(s)             13,159,450               1,457,723             10,368,870               3,570,137 Steep decline as other options develop. For comparison, the districts of Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban and Thane have a population over 20 million.
Decline 89% 66%

Inbound / terminating traffic : Most of the inbound traffic would be tourists. As we have seen earlier, the overwhelming majority of tourists are domestic tourists. Given the five new/upgraded domestic airports around Goa, this would tend to dampen growth estimates (as tourists to Gokarn, for instance, would fly into Karwar, not Dabolim.) However, it is important to note that if Goa goes seriously down the tourism path, very large numbers of inbound international and domestic air traffic due to tourism are possible. In order to justify annual traffic of 25 mn (as the Goa Vision 2035 document does), we will need approximately a 10 fold increase in tourists. Even to reach the ICAO figures of 9.3 million passengers, we will need at least a 3x increase in tourists. The most salient question is whether Goa wants to go down that path. Such a enormous expansion in tourism would need to overcome many issues :
  1. A massive expansion in tourism infrastructure will be required, including huge numbers of new hotels, a lot of cheap & efficient ground transportation, water, electricity, sewage treatment plants, etc.
  2. There is a lot of concern and opposition within Goa to casinos, golf courses, sex tourism, noise and parties on the beach, recreational drugs, etc. Many of these factors drive the big tourism spots.
  3. There is a strong concern, rightly or wrongly, about foreign & domestic mafia gangs.
  4. Who will service these tourists - it is currently being done largely by migrants. The Goan desire for "Special Status" is in direct contradiction with a large migrant population serving huge numbers of tourists.
Location Total Passengers Total Population Area Passengers / Population Remarks
Sq. Km.
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States     41,479,572     1,966,630       1,600                21.09
Orlando, Florida, United States     35,356,991     2,134,411    10,400                16.57 Served by multiple airports
Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia     12,780,563     4,220,000       5,780                  3.03
Ibiza, Balearic Islands, Spain       5,643,180        132,637 571                42.55 May-Oct season
Ko Samui, Surat Thani, Thailand       1,416,138           62,500          228                22.66
Phuket, Thailand       9,541,552        503,000          576                18.97
Dabolim, Goa, India       3,521,551     1,457,723       3,702                  2.42

Reality Check : Given the significantly negative factors on demand since 2007 (when the world was also in the midst of an euphoric boom), it would be reasonable to assume that the ICAO projection of 9.3 million passengers in 2034-35 is the maximum capacity requirement for Goa. It would also be reasonable to assume that the Goa Government's current consultants will come up with some astronomical estimates for air traffic. We know who is paying the piper, and what tune he is calling.

Since it is clear that increases in air traffic will arise primarily from tourism, surely the Tourism Master Plan should be created before new air traffic projections are created and the decision to construct Mopa is taken ?

Dabolim Constraints

My previous piece has examined this question in great detail. A key finding is that there is no obvious constraint (other than political will) to greatly increasing the capacity at Dabolim. To quickly recap :
  1. Gatwick, the busiest single runway airport, handles around 35 mn passengers a year. It is around 10 times the size of Dabolim on many parameters. Certain ratios (like passengers per movement) are very similar to Dabolim. Even taking into account a 20% cut due to Indian Navy restrictions, achieving around 28 mn passengers should be possible if adequate facilities are developed.
  2. Dabolim is already regularly handling daily flights on a 747-400 flown by Transaero from Moscow. For giant aircraft, i.e., A-380 / B747-8, various infrastructure would need to be created, but a lot of the ground work is done. For instance, taxiway separation is the required 190m. More importantly, there are only 2 scheduled flights into all of India using these aircraft - Lufthansa into Delhi and Bangalore.
  3. The Navy is already building a greenfield Naval airport near Karwar as a part of Phase II of Project Seabird / INS Kadamba.
  4. There are large tracts of land around the Dabolim airport where new facilities can be built, or given to the Navy as a land swap.
  5. There are large tracts of land on the Vasco-Dabolim-Verna plateau where facilities like agro parks can come up.
As we have already seen, the ICAO Report makes it amply clear that the new terminal at Dabolim is adequate for a long time. Let's examine this in some more detail.

What is the capacity of the New Terminal at Dabolim : It will have a capacity of 2,750 passengers per hour. The question is how do we translate that into passengers per year (without doing a detailed Operations Research study.)
  1. A simple extrapolation of 2,750 passengers per hour x 140 hours a week x 52 weeks is 20 million passengers. However, it is obviously not feasible to operate at full capacity all the time.
  2. Compared to the current 600 passengers per hour, the new terminal represents an increase of around 4.5x. Taking that as the thumb rule, the new terminal should be able to service 15.5 mn passengers.
  3. After searching the internet, I found a few data points for airport terminals with hourly and annual capacities. Using a ratio of 3,300, we get an annual capacity of the New Terminal at Dabolim of around 9 million.
Airport Terminal Hourly Annual Ratio Remarks
Cairo International Airport Seasonal Flight Terminal        1,200     3,200,000  2,667 Terminal only for Haj traffic, so poorly utilised
Dublin Airport Terminal         4,781  15,770,000  3,298 The correct ratio seems to be around 3,300. There are 8,760 hours in a year.
Sheremetyevo International Airport, Moscow Terminal C        1,500     5,000,000  3,333
Macau International Airport Terminal        2,000     6,000,000  3,000
Dabolim International Airport New Terminal        2,750     9,075,000  3,300 Using the ratio of 3,300

A capacity of 9.075 million is rather close to the 2034-35 estimated air traffic of 9.3 million. No wonder the ICAO report implies that the new terminal and related works would suffice for Goa.

More interestingly, a quick look at the model of the new terminal, and what is actually being constructed shows that the pier with 5 aero-bridges are not being constructed right now - the existing terminals are in that space. Instead of the aerobridge pier, an identical second new terminal can be constructed. This will quickly double capacity of the terminal (although more space would be needed, especially for remote aircraft stands).

At_Dabolim_airport,_Goa,_India_05
The model of the new terminal displayed inside the airport

revised arial frony117th jan 2009 final
What is actually being constructed from the architect's website.

What about the Navy ? The Indian Navy currently has a 14 air squadrons. Around 7 or 8 squadrons are based at INS Hansa at Dabolim. The following nearby expansion of facilities are taking place :
  1. A naval air base is being developed as part of Phase II of INS Kadamba near Karwar. Initially, it is anticipated that Dorniers and helicopters will move to Karwar. Karnataka state is looking to create a Civil Enclave at Karwar and lengthen its runway, which could then accommodate all types of naval aircraft. It is easy to visualize pressure from the Commanding Officer of INS Kadamba to move squadrons from Goa to be under more direct supervision (and more power for the Commanding Officer).
  2. Less well publicised is the fact that the Indian Navy has a very significant participation in the expansion of Sambra Airport at Belgaum. The plan includes the acquisition by the Indian Navy of 420 acres (Dabolim civil enclave is only 35 acres) and basing the MIG-29s (for INS Vikramaditya) at Belgaum for training purposes.
It should be feasible to shift most of the Navy's squadrons at Dabolim to Karwar and Belgaum, including all training operations (which currently cause the morning flight restrictions)

A quick look at the layout of the Navy areas show some easy spaces to expand the Civil Enclave in. Actually, it is incredible that while the Civil Enclave is starved of land, there is a small golf course within the airport very close to the runway ! One principle can be to shift most Naval facilities south of the runway, and keep the Civil Enclave to the north, nearer the highway and railway.

What about non-peace time Naval Operations ? There is an element of FUD (fear, uncertainty & doubt) created around the possibility that Dabolim would be actively needed for naval operations and civilian flights will be stopped. This requires a quick look at the map again. The nearest non-Indian land is around 900km away (Jaffna in Sri Lanka). Pakistan is around 1,000 km away. This is beyond the range of our naval fighters. Any scenario that requires active participation from Dabolim will be a very significant war, most likely among nuclear powers. Disruption in air traffic will not be a big concern at that point of time (except to evacuate stranded tourists.)

Can we crowd-source a master plan for Dabolim ? It is clear that there are significant opportunities to make Dabolim work as Goa's airport indefinitely into the future. There are also some real questions around Dabolim, such as (a) what are the binding constraints at various levels of traffic, (b) how do we create capacity for facilities like hangars, fuel tanking and a cargo complex, (c) can we accommodate Code-F aircraft, (d) what options are there for the Indian Navy to cross the runway, etc.

There doesn't seem to be any master plan created for Dabolim (unless the AAI has done one quietly). This may be a good space for a group of interested citizens to run a event to crowd-source novel ideas and develop a long term plan for the airport. While this may seem challenging, Iceland has just gone through the process of crowd-sourcing its entire Constitution from its citizens. Even the UK has recently run an event asking for novel suggestions to deal with its air traffic constraints. 

Cost benefit analysis of Mopa

Further, there has been no discussion of the real cost-benefit analysis of Mopa. Nor has any examination of alternatives being done. In fact, the process doesn't seem to even envisage a cost-benefit analysis, or an examination of alternatives. Otherwise, there would have been a clear long term plan for Dabolim, which would have also specified what the binding constraint on its expansion was. Anyway, let's try to look at the cost-benefit analysis :
  1. Dabolim airport is profitable for AAI. Mopa will be a loss making airport, requiring subsidies. So the State of Goa will go from a situation where it doesn't have to spend money on the airport, to one where it will have to subsidise the airport (Mopa.)
  2. Further, the two-airport option is even worse financially for the state. The ICAO Report makes this amply clear. Of course, the deterioration in the Dabolim financials will impact AAI, not the Goa Government. But AAI is part of the Indian Government and should be our concern too.
  3. There is now a independent regulatory body called the AERAI (Airports Economic Regulatory Authority of India). AERAI sets the rates that "major airports" can charge. A major airport is one that has 1.5 mn passengers, which Dabolim easily surpasses. Once Mopa is up and running, the tariffs of both airports will be set by AERA. This will be based on cost recovery + margin. Dabolim, being an older airport, will have lower charges than Mopa. That will again tend to make Mopa unviable, unless there is a massive subsidy from the State.
  4. The ICAO Report states that post construction of Mopa, there will be only 350-450 jobs created for every 1 million passengers serviced beyond Dabolim. Even optimistically estimating 4 million additional passengers handled over what Dabolim could have handled, we would have an additional 1,800 jobs. For the large amounts of land and money used, these would be the most expensive jobs ever created. 
  5. While on the one hand, our CM says that Goa has very little land available for development (8%), he proposed to utilize 2.77% of it for a white elephant. [8% of Goa works out to 296.16 sq. km (3,702 sq. km. x 8%). Land acquired for Mopa is 2,032 acres, or 8.22321 sq. km., or 2.77% of the available developable land.] 
  6. The CM has stated that no development would be permitted for a 7 km radius around the centre of Mopa Airport. This amounts to a further 50% of the available developable land! [A circle of 7 km radius has an area of 153.94 sq. km. If we exclude the actual Airport, we are reserving an additional 145.7 sq.km.] Further, large transport projects like ports, airports make sense only when they become hubs around which a lot of facilities develop. It is even more puzzling why the CM would want to score this self-goal ?
  7. And there are huge bauxite reserves in Mopa. If the State reserved this mineral for itself (which it can under the MMDR Act), and auctioned it off, the value would be substantially greater than any possible benefits from the airport.
Don't we have better alternative uses of (a) the land, (b) the money, and (c) the time of the politician and the citizens?

Some challenges in front of Mopa

  1. Litigation, notably the one by a mining lease holder for a bauxite mine, and one by a person who is challenging the entire land acquisition process.
  2. An Environmental clearance is required for Mopa.
  3. Government rules require that for greenfield airports within 150 km of an existing airport, the traffic distribution parameters should be clearly specified. This needs to be cast in stone quickly, as the ICAO Report makes clear that this determines the success or failure of a two-airport system. We must recognise that if Dabolim is run by AAI and Mopa by a private party, the chances are that over time, rules will be changed to favour Mopa, as it is run by a private player. The way to equalize this power balance would be to give the Civilian Enclave at Dabolim to a private player on a PPP basis. Then there will be a balance of power (or corruption).
  4. The new concept of no development for a 7 km radius around the centre of Mopa Airport smacks of craziness. The local villages will have absolutely no avenues to develop, except to work at the airport. This is clearly a punishment of the villages, and frankly reeks of colonial policies. It is an invitation by the Government to any concerned villager to challenge Sections 16 & 16A of the Town & Country Act (which exclude "government projects" from panchayat approval) on the grounds that this violates Article 73 of the Constitution (Panchayat Raj). This risk has increased with the recent SC judgement on Niyamgiri and the rights of the gram sabhas.

Why are politicians so keen on Mopa ?

The argument that politicians will benefit from real estate development doesn't hold much water either. The simple reason is that Pernem taluka, even without Mopa, will have 3 airports within 100 km - Dabolim, Chipi and Belgaum. Very few places in the country can boast this. Real estate prices will soar, even without Mopa. It may be a factor however.

A more important factor may be a desire of the State politicians to take control over as much expenditure / influence /  patronage from Central Agencies and Local Bodies. There are a number of examples in Goa to back this up : (a) the desire to have the PWD department execute the highway widening projects, (b) the development of Panjim port (which has almost no real docks) over Mormugao port, (c) the desire to keep strong control over education as demonstrated by the reluctance to move Goa University to a Central University (Goa is the only state in India without a Central University), (d) the strong grip over the Panchayats and Communidades, (e) the creation of a Khazan Land Board, etc.

Maybe it is a ego fight, the BJP wanting to show that it can create infrastructure quickly, and simultaneously tweaking the nose of the Congress/NCP in Maharashtra ? Or is it to distract us from the real issues of the Lok Ayukta, the State Information Commissioner, the mining imbroglio, and the Regional Plan ?

What can the average reader do ?

There's very little information publicly available about Mopa & Dabolim. The 2007 ICAO report is available online. However, the reports by ADPi, GTA/Vienna, Ammann & Whitney and Louis Berger are not available. AAI's calculations behind their projections for Dabolim traffic are not available. The recent Amman & Whitney presentation about Mopa is also not available. As these documents become available through RTI, it would be great if a group of citizens create a portal where all documents relating to Goa (and India) can be uploaded. Over time, this can be expanded to include all the Regional Plan maps, all gazette notifications, and many other such documents that the public are interested in, but find difficult to access. I wonder if Google (whose mission is to index all the information in the world) would be interested in participating in such an initiative.

There is also the opportunity to crowd-source a Master Plan for Dabolim. This needs to be done quickly and presented to the politicians and the Indian Navy.

And if the analysis still favours Dabolim, then it will be time to ask some difficult questions of our politicians as well as in the Indian Navy.

Note : The previous article is available at http://moreseriously.blogspot.com/2013/02/dabolim-and-mopa.html
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