The ICAO Report in 2007 can be downloaded here. If anyone has the Reports by ADPi, GTA/Vienna reports, Louis Berger or Ammann & Whitney , please contact me. Likewise, if there's any knowledge of a master plan for Dabolim / studies by AAI on either Mopa or Dabolim.
There are a number of interesting paras from the ICAO report that I quote below (selection mine, all favouring the continuation of Dabolim and not creating Mopa).
Note the objective of the 2007 ICAO report is to examine the feasibility of multi-airport strategy.
"Before proceeding further with the construction of a new airport at Mopa, the Government of Goa decided to study the feasibility of simultaneous operations at Dabolim and Mopa airports and requested ICAO to undertake the study."
Note that a key assumption around Dabolim is that there would be no further development ! And that the Government of Goa has decided to go ahead with Mopa, so no review of that decision.
"The study will be based on the following assumptions:
- Dabolim airport will continue to exist in the foreseeable future as a naval airport and that beyond the currently planned developments for civilian use, for which 6 acres of land are to be released by the Ministry of Defence; there will be no further substantial development for civilian traffic in the foreseeable future. This limited scope study is not intended to be a techno-economic feasibility study for the development of Dabolim airport to continue to serve as the sole airport for Goa for civilian operations.
- A decision in principle has been taken by the Government of Goa to construct a greenfield airport at Mopa site."
From the one line conclusion, it is clear that IF additional land is made available to AAI at Dabolim, Mopa will never be required.
"There is no question that a new airport will eventually be required at Mopa, when the enhanced capacity of Dabolim will not cope with the demand. The challenge is to determine when this capacity will be reached, assuming no additional land will be made available to AAI, and therefore, when the new airport should be commissioned, with what airport characteristics and with what capacity."
Viability of multi-airport systems
Goa is presently at 3.5 million passengers.
"Extensive research and studies have been completed over the past decade on numerous experiences in a multi-airport system is a compromise and only a second best solution compared to a single airport operation in most circumstances. This research has clearly demonstrated that a multi-airport system is a compromise and only a second best solution compared to a single airport operation in most circumstances. A necessary condition for the successful implementation of a second airport is the presence of a sizable market. The convergence of both passengers' and airlines' needs leads to the conclusion that the successful implementation of a second airport needs quite a high level of originating traffic. Based on recent studies on this issue, the threshold would presently be around 12 million originating passengers per year or a total of 24 million originating and destination passengers on a yearly basis, as a minimum."
"Splitting traffic between Dabolim and the new airport would impact the commercial and financial viability of both airports if a succinct and comprehensive strategy is not developed prior to the implementation of the dual airport system."
"Compared to a single airport, managing and developing a multi-airport system that serves the same metropolitan area or the same market catchment basin has direct impacts on the different users and services offered. From experience in existing multi-airport systems, one of the most obvious observations is the reduction of convenience for connecting traffic and the cost for certain airlines to provide services at each airport of the system. Given the volumes of passengers this situation may result in a decrease in optimal utilization of manpower, facilities and equipment."
"To be successful, the second airport must be attractive to passengers, i.e. provide convenient access to desired services. For Origin and Destination (O/D) passengers, this means convenient access to and from the airport and the frequency of departing flights. For connecting passengers, easy connections within the same airport are the most important parameter."
"From an airline perspective, the benefits from a second airport must outweigh its cost. To be of interest, if first needs a good market for a second airport, which will permit the airlines to concentrate their flights to optimize use of a major asset. A split operations between two airports will result in an increase in cost due to split operations (capital and O&M) while the loss of transfer traffic will reduce its revenue and its capacity to optimize the use of major assets."
"For airport managers and Airport Authorities, the loss of transfer passengers usually translates into a reduction in airport activity, and thus a reduction in aeronautical and commercial revenues, as well as a cost increase."
"Consequently, a multi-airport system is a compromise and only a second best solution compared to a single airport operation in most circumstances."
"Thus, planning and management of dual airports must focus on the issue of limiting the loss to users, (passengers, airlines and others), airport management (cost and revenues) and the state (economic impact)."
"A necessary condition for the successful implementation of a second airport is the presence of a sizable market."
"Attractiveness of the second airport must be assessed by comparison with the primary airport, the principle being that passengers and airlines will not use the second airport if they can obtain better service at the other airport, unless they are forced arbitrarily to operate at the second airport."
"From the passenger's point of view, attractiveness depends on the passenger needs. The originating passengers will tend to favour the airport with the easiest geographical access and the higher frequency of departures. On the other hand, a transfer passenger will require easy connections at the same airport."
"From an airline point of view, the second airport will be commercially attractive if it can provide a sizable market, i.e., if they allow the airline to maximize the use of their aircraft. Airlines tend to concentrate their flights to dominate markets and they achieve higher yields and profits. Airlines and especially low cost carriers voluntarily use second airports only when the metropolitan traffic is quite substantial."
"The convergence of both passengers' and airlines' needs leads to the conclusion that the successful implementation of a second airport needs quite a high level of originating traffic. Based on recent studies on this issue, the threshold would presently be ... a total of 24 million originating and destination passengers, on a yearly basis, as a minimum. This threshold tends however to increase over a period of time with the increase use of large aircraft. It is foreseen that it will be around 28 million origin and destination passengers as a minimum by 2012."
"Based on the above parameters and on the findings of recent studies on this issue, the relatively small amount of airport traffic in Goa does not provide a strong argument for splitting traffic between the existing Dabolim airport and a new airport at Mopa."
Dabolim Constraints
As relates to Forecasts of Aircraft Movements till 2034-35 : "These figures are approximate only and rely on broad assumptions. However, it indicates that the expected number of aircraft movements will be easily processed with a single runway system and will not therefore be a significant determinant for the dimensioning of the new airport facilities."
Section 3.3.1 describes various restrictions on capacity at Dabolim (as existed in 2007). Section 3.3.2 deals with the Proposed Capacity Enhancement (most of which has fructified, the new terminal in 2013, and parking, for which land is still required).
"The ICAO team was also informed during the mission that the enlargement of the aircraft-parking apron, the construction of a new terminal building and of an adequate car parking facility on recently acquired land from the Indian Navy, was at the final planning stage at AAI."
"This project would significantly alleviate most operational problems described in the previous sections of this report."
As relates to cargo operations:
"On the longer term, with the eventual transfer of activities to Mopa, a cargo area should be planned at the new airport, but the expected cargo activity estimated by ADPi and GTA/Vienna is relatively small and does not constitute a fundamental and critical issue for the decision makers."
"In any cases, both cargo forecasts by ADPi and GTA/Vienna represent relatively small volumes and would not require large facilities."
New Airport Project
The Mopa project as envisioned in 2005, seems similar in size as Dabolim with the current terminal expansion. ICAO recommended a larger project (which did not improve the financial viability).
"A Feasibility Study commissioned by the Government of Goa in 2005 proposed the following main characteristics for the first phase development (2014) of a new airport in Mopa:
- Airport capacity to handle 3 million passengers
- One runway of 3,750 meters length to accommodate unrestricted operations of the B747-400 and occasional operation of the A-380.
- 7 narrow body, 4 wide body and 2 reserve stands on aircraft parking apron
- Terminal building of 32, 000 square meters to provide a good level of service while accommodating arriving or departing domestic peak hours of 550 passengers and international peak hours of 400 passengers.
- Parking facilities with a capacity of 800 stalls for cards, 900 for motorcycles , 70 for taxis and 60 for buses.
- Cargo terminal with 4,500 square meters of floor area."
Financial viability & economic impact
About Dabolim at present :
"Although the civil enclave is restricted in its growth potential due to lack of appropriate facilities and restrictions placed by the military usage, the airport appears to be highly profitable as the operating surplus (revenues less expenditures) varies on a yearly basis from 54% to 80% of total revenues."
"Splitting traffic between Dabolim and the new airport would impact the commercial and financial viability of both airports if a succinct and comprehensive strategy is not developed prior to the implementation of the dual airport system."
On examining viability of Mopa as the only airport :
"The conclusion of the 2005 ADPi study was that the Cash Flow generated by the project was not sufficient to cover the capital expenditure program for a 100% private investment and that a new airport in Mopa would not be financially viable under a scenario of total private ownership, even in the situation where all the commercial traffic from Dabolim would be transferred to the new Mopa airport."
"The final results of our financial evaluation indicate that the Mopa project, even with a higher level of traffic will still not be financially viable under a 100% private investment scenario."
Note the massive job creation - a handful of jobs for the maybe 1-2 million passengers that cannot be handled by Dabolim.
"It is also conservatively estimated that the unconstrained operations at the new airport will also generate on a continuous basis a total of some 375 to 450 additional jobs per each million additional passengers that could not have been accommodated at Dabolim airport because of capacity constraints."
Why the Goa Government paid ICAO
From the one line conclusion, it is clear that IF additional land is made available to AAI at Dabolim, Mopa will never be required.
"There is no question that a new airport will be required at Mopa, when the enhanced capacity of Dabolim will not cope with the demand. The challenge is to determine when this capacity will be reached, assuming no additional land will be made available to AAI and therefore, when the new airport at Mopa should be commissioned with what airport characteristics and with what capacity."
"There is no question that a new airport will eventually be required at Mopa, when the enhanced capacity of Dabolim will not cope with the demand. The challenge is to determine when this capacity will be reached, assuming no additional land will be made available to AAI, and therefore, when the new airport should be commissioned, with what airport characteristics and with what capacity."
No comments:
Post a Comment