India's failed airports

Hope is not a strategy - an earlier post looked at the history of failed airports around the world. In fact, one of the failed airports in Spain was recently auctioned for €10,000!

The same disease has spread to India. There are eight commercial airports with no scheduled flights at all - Ludhiana, Puducherry, Cooch Behar, Akola, Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Pathankot, Kadapa (AP). This list changes - for instance, flights to Belgaum start and stop - but its clear that even for significant cities like Ludhiana, there's isn't enough traffic.

Similarly, the Plan Panel says that the existing 17 "world class" international airports are underperforming, and that there is no need for further such airports.

Hope is not a strategy : The demand for Mopa

The ICAO Report in 2007 was commissioned by the Goa Government. ICAO was asked to examine the possibility of operating both Mopa and Dabolim. The ICAO Report concluded that air traffic of 28 million per year would be the minimum needed to make this strategy economically viable. Goa's traffic is currently only 3.5 million. Mopa comes online in 2016-17. Where will this incredible increase come from ?

As this article goes on to show, there are no real executable plans in place. The Regional Plan 2021 has nothing that supports such an increase. The Goa Vision 2035 is only a vision, possibly more a mirage. The Tourism Master Plan is still in development. The Goa Investment & Industrial Policy 2013, which is expected shortly, is also not a strategy or a plan of execution. We are lead to the inevitable conclusion that the proposal for Mopa is a castle in the sky - with foundations of hot air.

Given that a very substantial part of the resources of Goa will be poured into Mopa, this is a very worrisome situation. And we have numerous recent examples of failed greenfield airports from around the world to give us pause for consideration.

AAI information

I recently had a chance to interact with AAI about Dabolim and Mopa. Orally, it was confirmed that the Navy is participating in the Belgaum expansion, and AAI is considering a Civil Enclave at the Karwar Naval Base. AAI also felt that a new airport is needed for Goa. However, a two  runway configuration was "futuristic".

I also sent some questions. The responses are below. The traffic forecasts (I have added the actuals) can be viewed here. It is worth noting that the 2045-46 forecast shows Goa's traffic above the current traffic at Delhi, India's busiest airport. The forecast works out to around 1,00,000 passengers a day (compared to Goa's population of 15,00,000)! The serious reader would find IMG document useful.

Dabolim air traffic monthly data since April 2006

I have created an excel spreadsheet with monthly data for Dabolim International Airport from the Monthly traffic Reports available on the AAI website. You can view it here. I will update this with more monthly data as and when it is available.

Some takeaways for Goa :

1. The peak traffic of 13,688 passengers seen in Jan 2013 is equivalent to only around 5 hours of peak traffic for the new terminal. Therefore, we can reasonably expect the new terminal to handle a doubling of air traffic at Dabolim - 8 hours of peak traffic and the rest spread through off-peak times. Remember, the ICAO Report stated that neither the runway nor the cargo load projections acts as any constraint on capacity at Dabolim.
2. Domestic traffic is an increasingly important part of the overall traffic. Projections that Mopa will see extraordinary international traffic isn't borne out by the data.
3. Domestic traffic is much smoother - it doesn't dip very much in the monsoons. This is not the case for international traffic, and represents a missed opportunity for Goa tourism.
4. Passengers per flight (movement) is much more variable for the international traffic. Presumably, this reflects the fact that 747s are used only for the tourist season.
5. International cargo shows a correlation with the tourism season, indicating that charters are taking on cargo also.

Please put any requests for additional analysis or charts, or observations on the data in the comments below.

Update : Spreadsheet updated till March 2013.

Update 18-Nov-2014 : Spreadsheet updated till September 2014.

India air traffic annual data by airport since 2006-07

I have created an excel spreadsheet with annual data by airport from the Monthly traffic Reports available on the AAI website. You can view it here. I will update this with 2012-13 data when that is available.

Some takeaways for Goa :

1. Goa accounts for a tiny proportion of Indian air traffic.
2. Traffic is heavily skewed towards domestic traffic. Cargo has somewhat of a balance between international and domestic cargo.
3. The rate of growth of the traffic fluctuates a lot. It seems to be doubling every 7 years or so.
4. It is only on the seat load factor that Goa is on the top 10% of the Indian airports.
5. Three airports in Kerala, viz., Calicut, Cochin, and Trivandrum have higher international traffic than Goa.

Please put any observations on the data in the comments below.

Update 18-Nov-2014 : This file has been updated with 2013-14 data.