India's failed airports

Hope is not a strategy - an earlier post looked at the history of failed airports around the world. In fact, one of the failed airports in Spain was recently auctioned for €10,000!

The same disease has spread to India. There are eight commercial airports with no scheduled flights at all - Ludhiana, Puducherry, Cooch Behar, Akola, Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Pathankot, Kadapa (AP). This list changes - for instance, flights to Belgaum start and stop - but its clear that even for significant cities like Ludhiana, there's isn't enough traffic.

Similarly, the Plan Panel says that the existing 17 "world class" international airports are underperforming, and that there is no need for further such airports.

Updates on the Navy and Dabolim

This is a follow up to "Indian Navy in Goa". The jet fighter training and the MIG 29K training are the chief reason for the time slot block at Dabolim / INS Hansa. Here's a few interesting articles on the Navy's plans:

1. Anyone who's been to Dabolim recently would have noticed that at peak times, there is a shortage of apron space for airplane parking. There is also a desperate need for a taxiway on the terminal side (north) of the runway. This article talks about additional airside land being made available for apron and airplane parking.

Dabolim is closed for civilian traffic from 8:30am - 1pm on weekdays (not weekends!). The article also points out that Lohegaon in Pune, with 3 air force squadrons, permits 24 hour civilian operations. So does INS Dega / Vishakapatnam, the Navy's main air base on the East Coast.

2. This recent article has one squadron of MIG29Ks being repositioned at Vishakapatnam / INS Dega. It also talks about quite a few advanced jet trainers being positioned at INS Dega, and INS Dega becoming nearly as large as INS Hansa / Dabolim. INS Dega / Vishakapatnam permits 24 hour civilian operations.

3. The new maritime reconnaisance aircraft, Boeing P8-i are all based at INS Rajali, Arakkonam, Tamil Nadu.

There are 2 naval bases being created / upgraded around Dabolim - Belgaum and Karwar.This raises the question why 24 hour civilian operations cannot be permitted in Dabolim.

That would obviously kill Mopa. Perhaps that is the answer

(Article updated on 14-Nov-2015 with the 3rd point. Also, it no longer is clear whether the defense are building an air strip at Naqueri-Betul for the Defexpo)

Our deep rooted biases

Female-named hurricanes kill more than male hurricanes because people don’t respect them, study finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/02/female-named-hurricanes-kill-more-than-male-because-people-dont-respect-them-study-finds

What happens when too many airports are built

Spain's Ciudad Real airport sold at auction for €10,000 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33578949

Hope is not a strategy : The demand for Mopa

The ICAO Report in 2007 was commissioned by the Goa Government. ICAO was asked to examine the possibility of operating both Mopa and Dabolim. The ICAO Report concluded that air traffic of 28 million per year would be the minimum needed to make this strategy economically viable. Goa's traffic is currently only 3.5 million. Mopa comes online in 2016-17. Where will this incredible increase come from ?

As this article goes on to show, there are no real executable plans in place. The Regional Plan 2021 has nothing that supports such an increase. The Goa Vision 2035 is only a vision, possibly more a mirage. The Tourism Master Plan is still in development. The Goa Investment & Industrial Policy 2013, which is expected shortly, is also not a strategy or a plan of execution. We are lead to the inevitable conclusion that the proposal for Mopa is a castle in the sky - with foundations of hot air.

Given that a very substantial part of the resources of Goa will be poured into Mopa, this is a very worrisome situation. And we have numerous recent examples of failed greenfield airports from around the world to give us pause for consideration.

Indian Navy in Goa

There is some confusion surrounding the Indian Navy's operations at Dabolim. A careful analysis of the Navy's present operations and its stated plans show that the Navy plans to vacate most of Dabolim airport within a decade at most. What may be left are the IL-38 maritime reconnaissance aircraft.

AAI information

I recently had a chance to interact with AAI about Dabolim and Mopa. Orally, it was confirmed that the Navy is participating in the Belgaum expansion, and AAI is considering a Civil Enclave at the Karwar Naval Base. AAI also felt that a new airport is needed for Goa. However, a two  runway configuration was "futuristic".

I also sent some questions. The responses are below. The traffic forecasts (I have added the actuals) can be viewed here. It is worth noting that the 2045-46 forecast shows Goa's traffic above the current traffic at Delhi, India's busiest airport. The forecast works out to around 1,00,000 passengers a day (compared to Goa's population of 15,00,000)! The serious reader would find IMG document useful.