Hope is not a strategy : The demand for Mopa

The ICAO Report in 2007 was commissioned by the Goa Government. ICAO was asked to examine the possibility of operating both Mopa and Dabolim. The ICAO Report concluded that air traffic of 28 million per year would be the minimum needed to make this strategy economically viable. Goa's traffic is currently only 3.5 million. Mopa comes online in 2016-17. Where will this incredible increase come from ?

As this article goes on to show, there are no real executable plans in place. The Regional Plan 2021 has nothing that supports such an increase. The Goa Vision 2035 is only a vision, possibly more a mirage. The Tourism Master Plan is still in development. The Goa Investment & Industrial Policy 2013, which is expected shortly, is also not a strategy or a plan of execution. We are lead to the inevitable conclusion that the proposal for Mopa is a castle in the sky - with foundations of hot air.

Given that a very substantial part of the resources of Goa will be poured into Mopa, this is a very worrisome situation. And we have numerous recent examples of failed greenfield airports from around the world to give us pause for consideration.

Indian Navy in Goa

There is some confusion surrounding the Indian Navy's operations at Dabolim. A careful analysis of the Navy's present operations and its stated plans show that the Navy plans to vacate most of Dabolim airport within a decade at most. What may be left are the IL-38 maritime reconnaissance aircraft.

AAI information

I recently had a chance to interact with AAI about Dabolim and Mopa. Orally, it was confirmed that the Navy is participating in the Belgaum expansion, and AAI is considering a Civil Enclave at the Karwar Naval Base. AAI also felt that a new airport is needed for Goa. However, a two  runway configuration was "futuristic".

I also sent some questions. The responses are below. The traffic forecasts (I have added the actuals) can be viewed here. It is worth noting that the 2045-46 forecast shows Goa's traffic above the current traffic at Delhi, India's busiest airport. The forecast works out to around 1,00,000 passengers a day (compared to Goa's population of 15,00,000)! The serious reader would find IMG document useful.

Mopa and Dabolim - After the ICAO 2007 Report

A previous article on Mopa and Dabolim looked at

• The possible constraints on capacity at Dabolim, especially in comparison with Gatwick Airport, which services nearly 35mn passengers with a single runway. It turns out that constraints at Dabolim, if any, are surrounding the availability of land for larger terminals, aircraft stands, and other items like car parking and fuel tanking.
• It showed that there is a massive increase in the number of airports in our vicinity that will soon be able to handle A-320s/B737s.
• It looked at the alternatives facing Goa. The two airport option is the worst of all worlds. If we put Dabolim head to head with Mopa, Mopa is clearly inferior to Dabolim on many counts. Only if there is an overriding hard constraint on expansion at Dabolim should Mopa even be considered.
• A look at the map showed that there are significant parcels of land available in and around Dabolim for the Navy to move its non-critical infrastructure (housing, etc.), and for the Civil Enclave to expand. There is substantial land available for any food processing park that is being bandied about.
• Lastly, it speculates about why the state of Goa has got stuck with a second airport, which has not been justified in any rigorous fashion.

In 2007, the Government of Goa commissioned the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation, an arm of the UN) to do a study on Mopa. I received this report only recently. This article looks at the findings of the ICAO Report of 2007. In light of events after the ICAO Report in 2007, a re-look is needed at the air traffic forecasts for Goa. A more detailed look at the capacity of the New Terminal at Dabolim shows that it is more than adequate for Goa's needs for a long time. Further, there are even more options for expansion as the Navy is creating two airbases near Goa (Karwar, Belgaum), one in particular for the MIG-29K which will replace the Sea Harriers based in Dabolim. A quick look at Mopa from a cost-benefit angle show that it is a poor choice. There are also some significant obstacles in front of Mopa. In light of the growing opposition to Mopa, we are then left with the enigma of why are the politicians are so keen on Mopa. Lastly, I suggest some actions that can be taken by interested readers.

Dabolim air traffic monthly data since April 2006

I have created an excel spreadsheet with monthly data for Dabolim International Airport from the Monthly traffic Reports available on the AAI website. You can view it here. I will update this with more monthly data as and when it is available.

Some takeaways for Goa :

1. The peak traffic of 13,688 passengers seen in Jan 2013 is equivalent to only around 5 hours of peak traffic for the new terminal. Therefore, we can reasonably expect the new terminal to handle a doubling of air traffic at Dabolim - 8 hours of peak traffic and the rest spread through off-peak times. Remember, the ICAO Report stated that neither the runway nor the cargo load projections acts as any constraint on capacity at Dabolim.
2. Domestic traffic is an increasingly important part of the overall traffic. Projections that Mopa will see extraordinary international traffic isn't borne out by the data.
3. Domestic traffic is much smoother - it doesn't dip very much in the monsoons. This is not the case for international traffic, and represents a missed opportunity for Goa tourism.
4. Passengers per flight (movement) is much more variable for the international traffic. Presumably, this reflects the fact that 747s are used only for the tourist season.
5. International cargo shows a correlation with the tourism season, indicating that charters are taking on cargo also.

Please put any requests for additional analysis or charts, or observations on the data in the comments below.

Update : Spreadsheet updated till March 2013.

Update 18-Nov-2014 : Spreadsheet updated till September 2014.

India air traffic annual data by airport since 2006-07

I have created an excel spreadsheet with annual data by airport from the Monthly traffic Reports available on the AAI website. You can view it here. I will update this with 2012-13 data when that is available.

Some takeaways for Goa :

1. Goa accounts for a tiny proportion of Indian air traffic.
2. Traffic is heavily skewed towards domestic traffic. Cargo has somewhat of a balance between international and domestic cargo.
3. The rate of growth of the traffic fluctuates a lot. It seems to be doubling every 7 years or so.
4. It is only on the seat load factor that Goa is on the top 10% of the Indian airports.
5. Three airports in Kerala, viz., Calicut, Cochin, and Trivandrum have higher international traffic than Goa.

Please put any observations on the data in the comments below.

Update 18-Nov-2014 : This file has been updated with 2013-14 data.

Key paras from ICAO 2007 Report

The ICAO Report in 2007 can be downloaded here. If anyone has the Reports by ADPi, GTA/Vienna reports, Louis Berger or Ammann & Whitney , please contact me. Likewise, if there's any knowledge of a master plan for Dabolim / studies by AAI on either Mopa or Dabolim.

There are a number of interesting paras from the ICAO report that I quote below (selection mine, all favouring the continuation of Dabolim and not creating Mopa).

Note the objective of the 2007 ICAO report is to examine the feasibility of multi-airport strategy.

"Before proceeding further with the construction of a new airport at Mopa, the Government of Goa decided to study the feasibility of simultaneous operations at Dabolim and Mopa airports and requested ICAO to undertake the study."

Note that a key assumption around Dabolim is that there would be no further development ! And that the Government of Goa has decided to go ahead with Mopa, so no review of that decision.

"The study will be based on the following assumptions:

• Dabolim airport will continue to exist in the foreseeable future as a naval airport and that beyond the currently planned developments for civilian use, for which 6 acres of land are to be released by the Ministry of Defence; there will be no further substantial development for civilian traffic in the foreseeable future. This limited scope study is not intended to be a techno-economic feasibility study for the development of Dabolim airport to continue to serve as the sole airport for Goa for civilian operations.
• A decision in principle has been taken by the Government of Goa to construct a greenfield airport at Mopa site."

From the one line conclusion, it is clear that IF additional land is made available to AAI at Dabolim, Mopa will never be required.

"There is no question that a new airport will eventually be required at Mopa, when the enhanced capacity of Dabolim will not cope with the demand. The challenge is to determine when this capacity will be reached, assuming no additional land will be made available to AAI, and therefore, when the new airport should be commissioned, with what airport characteristics and with what capacity."

Dabolim and Mopa

The chief ministers of Goa over the last 4 years, Digambar Kamat and Manohar Parrikar, seem determined to develop a new airport at Mopa. The few stated reasons for this follows the classic FUD format - Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt! These include :

1. Dabolim Airport will be saturated at 3 million passengers a year. We will soon have 6 million passengers a year. Wide bodied aircraft cannot land at Dabolim.
2. It is better to have a second airport. Regional Airports are doing well. It reduces travel distances.
3. We can create an export hub at the airport. We can also create a food processing area.
4. The Mopa land anyway has a bauxite mining lease on it. It is preferable to build an airport instead.

 As I will show below, these are bogus. A Government serious about Goa and what can be implemented would spend its time on Dabolim and not acquire vast tracts of land needlessly for a second airport.